Insights

Free articles, quick market notes, and the weekly brief. The signal without the length.

Free Articles

FreeMar 12, 2025 · 8 min read

What the Fed's Reverse Repo Drainage Actually Means for Equity Risk

Liquidity conditions are changing quietly. Here's what the plumbing tells us about risk appetite heading into Q2.

FreeFeb 22, 2025 · 6 min read

Three Charts That Explain Why AI Capex Isn't Slowing Down

Hyperscaler guidance, power procurement contracts, and hiring data all point to the same conclusion.

Market Notes

ProMar 20, 2025 · 4 min read

NVDA Earnings Reaction: What the Options Market Priced vs. What Happened

Post-earnings positioning and what it implies for the semiconductor cohort through end of quarter.

ProMar 5, 2025 · 5 min read

Energy Sector: Utility Valuations After the Rate Move

CEG and VST relative to historical spreads. The setup looks different from December.

Weekly Brief

ProMar 17, 2025 · 10 min read

Week of March 17: Macro Regime Update, Portfolio Changes, What We're Watching

Dollar strength, positioning across the model portfolios, and three names we added to our watchlist.

ProMar 10, 2025 · 9 min read

Week of March 10: Rates, Energy, and the Healthcare Thesis Update

A quieter week with important positioning adjustments. We trimmed FSLR and added to CEG on the pullback.